A hierarchical Bayesian model for predicting ecological interactions using scaled evolutionary relationships

Identifying undocumented or potential future interactions among species is a challenge facing modern ecologists. Recent link prediction methods rely on trait data, however large species interaction databases are typically sparse and covariates are limited to only a fraction of species. On the other hand, evolutionary relationships, encoded as phylogenetic trees, can act as proxies for underlying traits and historical patterns of parasite sharing among hosts. We show that using a network-based conditional model, phylogenetic information provides strong predictive power in a recently published global database of host-parasite interactions. By scaling the phylogeny using an evolutionary model, our method allows for biological interpretation often missing from latent variable models. To further improve on the phylogeny-only model, we combine a hierarchical Bayesian latent score framework for bipartite graphs that accounts for the number of interactions per species with the host dependence informed by phylogeny. Combining the two information sources yields significant improvement in predictive accuracy over each of the submodels alone. As many interaction networks are constructed from presence-only data, we extend the model by integrating a correction mechanism for missing interactions, which proves valuable in reducing uncertainty in unobserved interactions.Comment: To appear in the Annals of Applied Statistic

Bacterial diversity in the waterholes of the Kruger National Park : an eDNA metabarcoding approach

Bacteria are essential components of natural environments. They contribute to ecosystem functioning through roles as mutualists and pathogens for larger species, and as key components of food webs and nutrient cycles. Bacterial communities respond to environmental disturbances, and the tracking of these communities across space and time may serve as indicators of ecosystem health in areas of conservation concern. Recent advances in DNA sequencing of environmental samples allow for rapid and culture-free characterization of bacterial communities. Here we conduct the first metabarcoding survey of bacterial diversity in the waterholes of the Kruger National Park, South Africa. We show that eDNA can be amplified from waterholes and find strongly structured microbial communities, likely reflecting local abiotic conditions, animal ecology, and anthropogenic disturbance. Over timescales from days to weeks we find increased turnover in community composition, indicating bacteria may represent host-associated taxa of large vertebrates visiting the waterholes. Through taxonomic annotation we also identify pathogenic taxa, demonstrating the utility of eDNA metabarcoding for surveillance of infectious diseases. These samples serve as a baseline survey of bacterial diversity in the Kruger National Park, and in the future, spatially distinct microbial communities may be used as markers of ecosystem disturbance, or biotic homogenization across the park.This paper is part of a special issue entitled “Trends in DNA Barcoding and Metabarcoding”.M.J.F. was supported by a Vanier NSERC CGS and the CIHR Systems Biology Training Program, with project funding supported by the Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, the McGill Biology Department, and an NSERC Discovery Grant awarded to T.J.D.http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/journal/genhj2019Paraclinical Science

A powerful intervention: general practitioners' use of sickness certification in depression

<b>Background</b> Depression is frequently cited as the reason for sickness absence, and it is estimated that sickness certificates are issued in one third of consultations for depression. Previous research has considered GP views of sickness certification but not specifically in relation to depression. This study aimed to explore GPs views of sickness certification in relation to depression.<p></p> <b>Methods</b> A purposive sample of GP practices across Scotland was selected to reflect variations in levels of incapacity claimants and antidepressant prescribing. Qualitative interviews were carried out between 2008 and 2009.<p></p> <b>Results</b> A total of 30 GPs were interviewed. A number of common themes emerged including the perceived importance of GP advocacy on behalf of their patients, the tensions between stakeholders involved in the sickness certification system, the need to respond flexibly to patients who present with depression and the therapeutic nature of time away from work as well as the benefits of work. GPs reported that most patients with depression returned to work after a short period of absence and that it was often difficult to predict which patients would struggle to return to work.<p></p> <b>Conclusions</b> GPs reported that dealing with sickness certification and depression presents distinct challenges. Sickness certificates are often viewed as powerful interventions, the effectiveness of time away from work for those with depression should be subject to robust enquiry

The ghost of hosts past: impacts of host extinction on parasite specificity

A growing body of research is focused on the extinction of parasite species in response to host endangerment and declines. Beyond the loss of parasite species richness, host extinction can impact apparent parasite host specificity, as measured by host richness or the phylogenetic distances among hosts. Such impacts on the distribution of parasites across the host phylogeny can have knock-on effects that may reshape the adaptation of both hosts and parasites, ultimately shifting the evolutionary landscape underlying the potential for emergence and the evolution of virulence across hosts. Here, we examine how the reshaping of host phylogenies through extinction may impact the host specificity of parasites, and offer examples from historical extinctions, present-day endangerment, and future projections of biodiversity loss. We suggest that an improved understanding of the impact of host extinction on contemporary host–parasite interactions may shed light on core aspects of disease ecology, including comparative studies of host specificity, virulence evolution in multi-host parasite systems, and future trajectories for host and parasite biodiversity. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe’

The future of zoonotic risk prediction

In the light of the urgency raised by the COVID-19 pandemic, global investment in wildlife virology is likely to increase, and new surveillance programmes will identify hundreds of novel viruses that might someday pose a threat to humans. To support the extensive task of laboratory characterization, scientists may increasingly rely on data-driven rubrics or machine learning models that learn from known zoonoses to identify which animal pathogens could someday pose a threat to global health. We synthesize the findings of an interdisciplinary workshop on zoonotic risk technologies to answer the following questions. What are the prerequisites, in terms of open data, equity and interdisciplinary collaboration, to the development and application of those tools? What effect could the technology have on global health? Who would control that technology, who would have access to it and who would benefit from it? Would it improve pandemic prevention? Could it create new challenges? This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.Peer reviewe

The macroecology of infectious diseases: a new perspective on global-scale drivers of pathogen distributions and impacts

© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS. Identifying drivers of infectious disease patterns and impacts at the broadest scales of organisation is one of the most crucial challenges for modern science, yet answers to many fundamental questions remain elusive. These include what factors commonly facilitate transmission of pathogens to novel host species, what drives variation in immune investment among host species, and more generally what drives global patterns of parasite diversity and distribution? Here we consider how the perspectives and tools of macroecology, a field that investigates patterns and processes at broad spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales, are expanding scientific understanding of global infectious disease ecology. In particular, emerging approaches are providing new insights about scaling properties across all living taxa, and new strategies for mapping pathogen biodiversity and infection risk. Ultimately, macroecology is establishing a framework to more accurately predict global patterns of infectious disease distribution and emergence

Perceptions of parents on satisfaction with care in the pediatric intensive care unit: the EMPATHIC study

Abstract: PURPOSE: To identify parental perceptions on pediatric intensive care-related satisfaction items within the framework of developing a Dutch pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) satisfaction instrument. METHODS: Prospective cohort study in tertiary PICUs at seven university medical centers in The Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: Parents of 1,042 children discharged from a PICU. RESULTS: A 78-item questionnaire was sent to 1,042 parents and completed by 559 (54%). Seventeen satisfaction items were rated with mean scores or =1.65, and thus considered of limited value. The empirical structure of the items was in agreement with the theoretically formulated domains: Information, Care a

Single-cell transcriptomes from human kidneys reveal the cellular identity of renal tumors.

Messenger RNA encodes cellular function and phenotype. In the context of human cancer, it defines the identities of malignant cells and the diversity of tumor tissue. We studied 72,501 single-cell transcriptomes of human renal tumors and normal tissue from fetal, pediatric, and adult kidneys. We matched childhood Wilms tumor with specific fetal cell types, thus providing evidence for the hypothesis that Wilms tumor cells are aberrant fetal cells. In adult renal cell carcinoma, we identified a canonical cancer transcriptome that matched a little-known subtype of proximal convoluted tubular cell. Analyses of the tumor composition defined cancer-associated normal cells and delineated a complex vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) signaling circuit. Our findings reveal the precise cellular identities and compositions of human kidney tumors